Presentation and discussion of Vladimir Guelman's book, "Russia's Gamble: The Domestic Origins of Russia's Attack on Ukraine".
Title: Presentation and discussion of Vladimir Guelman's book, "Russia's Gamble: The Domestic Origins of Russia's Attack on Ukraine
Guest: Vladimir Guelman (University of Helsinki)
Abstract:
Researchers from the DECRIPT program's Europe-Eurasia axis are organizing, jointly with the CORUSCANT program, a presentation and discussion of the book by Vladimir Guelman, Professor of Political Science at the University of Helsinki, "Russia's Gamble: The Domestic Origins of Russia's Attack on Ukraine" published in 2025 by Polity Press in the presence of the author.
Here's a description of the book in French:
In February 2022, Russia launched a large-scale military offensive against Ukraine, with the aim of re-establishing its control over the Ukrainian state, economy and society, similar in many ways to what existed under the Soviet regime. However, this objective has not been achieved, and will most probably not be achieved in the future. On the contrary, Russia's "special military operation" has resulted in considerable disasters and losses for Russia, Ukraine and the world.
This book examines the origins of Russia's offensive against Ukraine and explains why it failed to achieve its objectives. Why did Russian elites and leaders propose, prepare and carry out this offensive against Ukraine in such an ill-prepared and destructive way? In an attempt to answer these questions, Gel'man focuses on Russia's domestic agenda and its dynamics after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The personalized nature of Russia's authoritarian political system, its vulnerability to bad governance, the major misperceptions of Russian elites and leaders, and the Kremlin's confidence in the impunity Russia had enjoyed in the past were all key factors that led to Russia's fateful decision to attack Ukraine, and have continued to shape Russia's error-ridden conduct of the war ever since. Guelman also examines the lessons to be learned from Russia's military offensive for understanding the global agenda and studying domestic and international politics in the 21st century.
Date, time: Wednesday, June 3, 2026, 10:00 am - 12:00 pm
Location, room: Fondation Maison des Sciences de l'Homme, B1-10
Format: hybrid (Zom link sent the day before).
Coordination of the Europe-Eurasia Axis (WP7): Étienne Boisserie (Inalco), Frédéric Gloriant (Université Paris Sciences et Lettres), Jérôme Heurtaux (Université Paris Sciences et Lettres), Emilia Koustova (Université de Strasbourg), Julien Vercueil (Inalco). With Pierre-Louis Six, postdoctoral fellow, DÉCRIPT program.
Seminar registration open until Tuesday, June 2, 4:00 pm.